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Written by Third View Co-Founder, Zoltan Pongracz, and originally published on Forbes

I have worked with business owners across many industries, and far too often I have seen poor decisions turn what should be a final victory lap into an overwhelmingly stressful process. Selling a business is the culmination of decades of work, identity and risk. Owners who forget that can make decisions that affect both their financial future and their sense of purpose long after the deal closes.

Mistakes tend to fall into two categories. One is practical and structural, and the other is deeply human. Both are avoidable, but only if they are addressed early.

The most common mistake I see is business owners trying to handle an exit on their own. You may be the expert at running your own company, but when it comes to selling, it’s time to ask for help.

Stanley Druckenmiller once said:

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."

Markets reward patience more than they reward prediction. It’s true in regard to trying to time the market, and it’s also true in the context of trying to pick stocks.

The encouraging news, and the math underneath it, is that long-term investors do not need to be right about every move. The asymmetry is already on your side.

Since 1950, the average up year of the S&P 500 has delivered roughly +17.8%, while the average down year has cost just -11.8%. Roughly two of every three calendar years since 1928 have been positive. A clear pattern emerges.

You do not need to be right most of the time to compound meaningful wealth. You need to be right often enough, and to let the asymmetry do its work.

This is also why even investors with poor market timing have historically been rewarded for staying invested. Discipline, not foresight, does the work.

The job, then, is not to catch every winner. It’s to own a diversified portfolio of good companies that will continuously grow over time, resist the pull of the herd, and give compounding the time it needs.

That’s the approach we take at Third View, on your behalf.

A: Yes, for many families we work with, private credit has a real place in the portfolio. We own it on behalf of clients today. The structural backdrop, with banks pulling back from middle-market lending and capital filling that gap, makes a durable case for the asset class. Used thoughtfully, it can sit alongside traditional fixed income to deliver durable income with lower correlation to public bond markets.

The bigger question isn't whether to own it, but how. There is a great way to own private credit, and there are a lot of bad ways to own it. Manager selection, liquidity terms, fee structure, and access to institutional-grade vehicles all matter. Access without expertise is just risk.

The right answer depends on the role private credit would play in your broader plan. We're happy to walk through how it could complement what you already own.

Have a question you’d like us to answer in a future newsletter? Simply reply to this email to submit it to us.

Third View Co-Founder, Frank McKiernan, recently joined Alyson Tucci on the Barron’s Advisor Podcast to share more on his career story and beliefs regarding the future of financial advising.

Frank shares how the Third View team approaches the work of advising clients—from treating individuals like institutions to investing with a long-term, business-owner mindset.

🎧 Listen to the full episode here.

📖 Forbes: Jerry Sneed Shares A Practical Guide For NFL Players To Compound Wealth Beyond The League

📖 Frank McKiernan on Barron’s: For Wealthy Clients, Managing Investments Is Just Table Stakes. What They Really Need.

That’s all for this month. If you enjoyed the newsletter, the greatest compliment would be to forward it to someone you think would find it valuable. We’ll be back with more next month.
- Frank, Jerry, and Zoltan

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